Uncertainty: In order to predict what will happen, it has absolutely no elements to predict how events will be presented in the future or what specifically befall the same fate; either because we have no basis to infer an end of the other, if the facts will or will not, or because these bases are of equal value in different ways that may arise.
It should be noted that the circumstances of certain assumptions lead us to conclude, for example, that a new product to be successful, a company will fail, etc., there is uncertainty but certainty. The only uncertainty is when we are unable to reach any conclusions about what may happen in a particular case or issue.
Risk: Any decision necessarily implies a certain risk. People's attitudes toward risk vary depending on different factors. Some people are supporters of risk only when the odds of success are very large (enemies of the risk), but there are others who are willing to take risks but the chances of success are lower and even under conditions of uncertainty (players, friends risk).
These attitudes toward risk, vary not only with people, but depending on the magnitude of risk, the management level (higher-level people are more supporters to risk taking the lower level), and whether the funds involved are personal or belong to an organization.
Another important source of risk is indecision. Indeed, among all possible options, there is always a plus, which is to do nothing, ie no action and leave things as they are waiting to see if they resolve themselves. This, rarely is usually a good decision and a symptom of indecision can be more risky to take another option we look more risky.
Business Process
Aguirre (2003) states that it is a process consisting of four management activities: planning, organization, direction and control, which are performed by managers in order to achieve the targets set for organization.
Decision Making Process as part of the Administrative Process
The most important responsibility of the manager is making decisions, it is often said that decisions are something like the engine of business and proper effect selection of alternatives depends largely success of any organization.
decision making in an organization invades four administrative functions: planning, org anización, direction and control.
Planning: Selecting missions and objectives and actions to meet them. This implies "decision making."
What are the objectives of the organization, long term?
What strategies are best to achieve this goal?
What should be the short-term goals?
How high should be the individual goals?
Organization: Establishment of the structure played by individuals within the organization.
How much centralization must exist in the organization? How
posts should be designed?
Who is best qualified to fill a vacancy?
When should an organization implement a different structure?
Address: This function requires administrators to influence individuals to comply with organizational and group goals.
How do I handle a group of workers who seem to have a low motivation?
What is the style of leadership more effective for a given situation?
How will a change specific worker productivity? When is it appropriate
stimulate conflict?
Control: is the measurement and correction of performance individual and organizational so that plans can be achieved.
What activities in the organization need to be controlled?
How should these activities be controlled?
When is significant deviation in performance?
When the organization is endeavoring des effectively ?
The process of decision making is divided into four phases:
investigate the situation: decision making is necessary, first, identify the causes that produced the problem, based on questions such as what could be causing the problem? to date about the sources of the problem and define it in terms of organizational objectives.
Develop options: after analyzing the problem it is necessary to find a solution, but not within an alternative, but to prepare a set of alternatives. So we avoid falling into extreme positions uncovered the extent necessary.
evaluate and select the best option: the alternative selected should represent the best solution to the problem. The logical way for this, should be to establish the pros and cons of each alternative, and compare advantages and disadvantages with each other. To facilitate the choice of the best alternative is necessary to consider certain criteria such as
- Economic pain: it consists in evaluating the efficiency of the solution, which means the best result with the least possible effort.
- Limitation of resources: it is always necessary to consider the resources, both material and social order, it is clear that these are often limited and then there are the limitations of the staff to carry out the decision.
Implement the decision and follow up: This phase is essential because it gives value and all other content. There is no point making a decision if the decision is not effected by the action. Implement a decision requires more than just give the necessary orders. Resources must be acquired and allocated as needed. The managers set budgets and programs for action. Assign responsibilities for specific tasks. Establish procedures, making progress reports and establish a control and monitoring of the decision.
As you can see, the decision making is an integral part of administrative processes, each of them apply the four stages of decision making, so that all the work done in an organization either coordinated, efficient and effective. Methods
Deciding between Alternatives
methods usually leave that all alternatives are known or can know. The methods available are:
Optimization Techniques Under Certainty: Assume that all alternatives and all outcomes are known. The problem is to calculate which alternative is optimal for a given objective function:
- system of equations.
- Linear programming.
- Integer Programming.
- Dynamic Programming.
- queuing theory model.
- Inventory models.
- Analysis of capital budget.
- Analysis of equilibrium points.
Techniques of Statistical Decision Theory: They are mathematical techniques that assess the potential outcomes of alternative actions in a given decision situation. All the options and outcomes are assumed to be known, and the decision maker aims at maximizing profits. How methods of presenting data in decision theory are the payoff matrix and decision tree. Working with payment matrices and decision trees requires the use of probability estimates. The objective probabilities based on analogies situation are not usually available in such a way that the probabilities used are subjective. The advantage of the technique is that it requires the explicit use of subjective probabilities rather than use them without making them explicit.
array of payments consists of rows for alternatives and strategies available and columns for conditions (states world) that affect the outcome of strategies. Each intersection contains the payment (the consequences). In using this matrix may be 2 situations:
- If there is certainty as to what conditions prevail, the decision maker needs only to select the strategy that provides the highest payment.
- If there is uncertainty regarding the probabilities of different conditions that can occur, the decision maker can use some rules to decide such as: Minimize
penalty: The rule is to select the action or strategy that minimizes sum of penalties for the strategy. The penalties are the differences between the highest paid one state of the world and other consequences.
maximin rule: Select the strategy that will pay the highest utility (max) if the state of the world but (min) is presented. It is a pessimistic view.
maximax Rule: Select the strategy or alternative that generates the highest payment of utility (max) if the state of the world most favorable (max) occurs. It is an optimistic view.
Decision trees: When decisions must be taken in sequence is helpful in the decision tree method for representing analysis. The steps to use the decision tree analysis of alternatives are: Building
the tree starting with the decision points by adding branches to the states of the world (events) that may occur. Include the probability of occurrence of each state of the world. For each branch
only (endpoint) or outcome, assign a value.
Work backward to consider the consequences of each alternative for each "node" of the tree.
Utility and Indifference Curve: The examples of decisions in statistical decision theory have used currency values. It is also desirable to weigh the non-monetary conditions. For example, a person may be interested in time off as on the money and negotiate for one another. This dilemma can be represented by indifference curves of each level of total utility.
Classification Weighting or elimination by aspects:
Weight: Decisions that involve a number of factors or aspects, each factor is assigned a relative importance or weighting by the decision maker. The extent to which the alternatives meet the deciding factor is weighted according to importance (or range). The sum of the weighted factors is used to compare the alternatives.
Elimination desired requirements are identified and ranked in importance or value. Starting with the most important requirements, eliminating all alternatives that do not contain this aspect. This process continues through all aspects.
Game Theory: This is another means of analyzing a decision in a situation of competition, so that when a decision unit (player) wins the other loses.
Classical Statistical Inference: The techniques of classical statistical inference can be useful in the preparation of information for decision-making:
Sampling: Samples are taken from a small portion of the population to estimate parameters such as mean , variation, etc.
Probability Distribution: A number of distributions (Normal, Poisson, etc.).. If the data are close to one of these distributions, the theoretical model can be used for purposes of decision making.
correlation and regression analysis: The relationship between variables dependent on one or more independent variables is determined by the correlation analysis. The correlation coefficient is a summary measure to explain the extent to which changes in the dependent variables are explained by changes in the independent variables.
Hypothesis Testing: The hypotheses are tested to judge whether they are true or false.
Decisional Balance Sheet for Decision Making Under Stress: For each alternative obtained positive and negative anticipations for four categories of income and placed in a grid. Having filled the grid, the decision maker can evaluate the strength of gains and losses and the range of alternatives. The categories above are:
- tangible gains or losses for yourself.
- Gains and losses for others.
- self-concern or autodisentimiento.
- Consent or social dissent
Rational Model for Decision Making
The administrative process presupposes that the decision maker is entirely rational, either to offer guidance on how to do strategic planning, how to design the structure of an organization or how to measure organizational effectiveness. Believes that human behavior is built with the idea that people carry out consistent calculations or adjustments that maximize the value under certain restrictions. A person has goals or objectives, and a utility function or preference that allows you to classify all possible actions according to the contribution of these to your goals. Finally, the person selects the highest value alternative in terms of the functions of retribution.
Investigate the Situation
- Defining the Problem
- Identify Goals
- Diagnose causes
- Development Alternatives
- Find creative alternatives
- not yet assess
- Evaluate alternatives and select the best
- Evaluate Alternatives
-Select the Best
- Implement and monitor
- Plan implementation
- Implement the plan
- Make the necessary adjustments and track
Rational Process of Decision Making
Factors impeding the implementation of Rational Model
Most leaders try to take decisions within a framework of rationality, or try out of situations in a manner as safe as possible. However, the lack of knowledge, limited information, lack of time, uncertainty, etc. limited rationality and therefore have to act with bounded rationality.
The quality of the decision is significantly limited by the limiting nature of human intellect. These limitations are determined by the following:
No one can make decisions affecting the past, decisions operate in the future and the future invariably involves uncertainty. Past experience is past, and through it we can understand why a decision was good or bad, what did not done and what should have been done. If the future were to behave in the same conditions, this experience would be valid for new decisions, but at the present time, characterized by instability and dynamism, its value is approximate and therefore does not guarantee a high effectiveness.
is difficult, if not practically impossible, to know all the possible options that can be followed to achieve a given objective, which is of particular importance when the decision may mean opportunities to do something new that has not been made before.
rationality is limited not only by the limitations of information but also the quantity, variability and highly subjective component of these to make decisions. Leaders make decisions based on the available options, their knowledge of current situations, their expectations about future situations, establishing criteria for selecting them, their past experiences and his exploration of the consequences of line taken. Product which in practice can not be completely rational, the leaders let their aversion to risk (the desire to play safe), interferes with the desire to find the best solution.
The Manager Competitive
article Carlos Mora Venegas
"A manager must be sincerely committed to their society and ethical values \u200b\u200b(if we understand by a philosophy that ethics has enormous potential for creating value and wealth) that, contrary to what many think people are fully compatible with competitiveness, productivity and profitability, "Carlos Iriarte
Very interesting to the reality of an increasingly competitive scenario, are statements of Raúl Masters, CEO of Korn / Ferry International, when he says that "changes in economic factors and, in general, the new reality of the modern economy, characterized by inflation, existence of a market recession and, in turn, high levels of competitiveness-determine the need for talents with different experiences that allow them to adapt to current circumstances, and are able to prepare your company for the opening. The new manager is an agent of change ... The minimum skills required to choose candidates in senior management positions are personal integrity and ethics, vision, leadership skills, ability to lead and coordinate activities to achieve common goals , adjustment for achieving these objectives in the medium and long term, and sufficient autonomy to give instructions and autogerenciarse. All these requirements, coupled with training académica de excelencia y experiencia laboral, constituyen el expediente curricular de los nuevos gerentes".
El Gerente Competitivo nos recuerda Carlos Iriarte, debe entender que hoy la velocidad del cambio deja apenas el tiempo suficiente para acomodarse a él e innovar como una forma de ir un poco más allá. Porque "Innovar" significa, según Peter Drucker, ver el cambio como una oportunidad. Quien no lo haga será sencillamente sacado del mercado. Un Gerente proactivo debe estar en consonancia con la sociedad basada en el conocimiento. Debe, diría yo, ser causa y efecto de esa sociedad bien informada e instruida, globalizada y con patrones tecnológicos cada vez más sofisticados.
Insertar la empresa in the world is no longer a simple goal, it is mostly a necessity. This is done based only good training and education not only policy makers but also a business organization at all levels. And since change is so rapid, education must be permanent.
Carlos Iriarte We also add that a good manager these days must profess and practice the kind of decalogue of a good leader, that is, be creative to innovate, be able to anticipate and resolve problems, being a worker to hand over all his talent be productive to always seek excellence, be enthusiastic to be able to lead others to the proposed goals, be optimistic to have confidence in a better future, be participatory to know how to delegate, be communicative to inform and be informed, be responsible to assume obligations to himself and the community and be honest to serve as an example.
definitely today's world imposes enormous challenges in contemporary Manager, requiring managers with knowledge of modern management topics, with skill, innovation, vision and very proactive, flexible structuring, an ability to motivate staff to create a permanent attachment , develop and manage the culture of the organization to be competitive. Carlos Iriarte
We add, that manager will not suffice to have vision but will be needed have the ability to articulate and impose, be persistent and patient, to provide stability, to anticipate problems and crises, to establish their commitment and participation in decisions.
course, all this also means, as conceived by Warren Bennis, having ten personal and organizational characteristics that are necessary to shape the future: have a dream or vision, take risks, accompanied by criticism, optimism, encourage dissent, have high expectations towards others, have smell on the future, to see things long term, understand and respect the interests, and develop strategic alliances (Bennis, 1989). In other words, a manager should trigger major changes to give new purpose and values \u200b\u200bto the world of business, which is, to provide a "vision" of the world than a good manager
competitive today, as stated Michel E. Porter in his book Competitive Strategy-Techniques for analyzing industries and competition, shall take the company to shape and implement a competitive strategy in the sense of "developing a broad formula for how the company will compete, which should be its objectives and what policies are needed to develop these goals ", all built on the analysis of the structure an industrial sector and competition, to know in detail the five forces of competition in industrial sector (the negotiating capacity of customers, bargaining power of suppliers, threat of substitute products, new revenue, and rivalry among existing competitors), and the barriers to enter the sector and barriers to exit the sector, and they could be addressed. "In short, Porter says in the work cited, the fact that in recent decades the market has been acquiring a growing momentum. This undeniable fact poses a real and constant challenge to stay for business and, therefore, for those who run . is required now more than ever, more creativity and better tools to identify appropriate competitive strategy for my company, to remain in the sector in which it is established or enter a different
All this happens, of course, a long-term strategic planning, focusing on the market with a framework defined, with involvement of the people, with emphasis on diagnosis and strategies, with monitoring and control based on business values., aspects that can not be neglected, and that all modern management professional must know how to handle. Very successful
Iriarte position when we stated that beyond management fads, a manager must understand that there are competitive immutable issues that govern the behavior of organizations and include:
- Marketing, since there is no market product, and no product (and / or service) has no reason to be a organization.
- Organizational psychology, because a company is first and foremost, a human group with its own culture and behavior.
- Finance, as an organization is an economic entity in pursuit of shareholder returns or surplus in order to survive, if it is a non-profit entity.
- Planning, to choose their future instead of suffering. Competitiveness, which is the end of business activities. Without it, he survived.
personal characteristics required of the managers address problems
George Terry, one of the classics of the administration, more than thirty years ago said that "the vitality of a company derives from the ability of managers to create and implement ideas, "adding that" a good manager should be able to think creatively, must constantly seek new combinations, better targets and improved methods, must be vigilant in knowing what is happening, to recognize their problems and find solutions to them , must be willing to destroy outdated and inefficient, to replace with new and better. "
The most appropriate professional is one who, besides knowledge, has the skills, attitudes and interests compatible with their function. A model that has been delineated as one of the most suitable for the times is that of the Competence Management. In the present context, SKILLS, are "behaviors that dominate some people better than others, and that makes them more effective in a given situation" (Levy Leboyer).
then referred to the 16 universal competencies in the areas of leadership and management by, MC. Cauley - 1989
Being a resourceful person, able to adapt to changing and ambiguous situations, be able to think strategically and to make correct decisions in stressful situations, leading complex work systems and adopt flexible behavior in problem solving, ability to work with upper management to complex problems.
Do what you know: to persevere, to concentrate despite the obstacles, take responsibility, be able to work alone and with others when necessary. Learn
quickly: quickly master new technologies. Have a sense
decision: to act quickly, appropriately and accurately. Manage teams effectively
: knowing how to delegate, to expand opportunities and fairness in their actions.
Create an enabling environment for development: challenges and opportunities expand to create a climate conducive to the development of his team. Learn
deal with their partners when they have problems, act decisively and equity when there are problems with their partners. Be
oriented teamwork.
up a team of talents to invest in developing the potential of its employees, identifying and offering new challenges and shared responsibility.
. Establish good relationships in the enterprise: namely to establish good working relationships, negotiate when there are problems getting cooperation. Having
sensitivity: showing concern for others and sensitivity to the needs of its employees.
Facing the challenges with confidence: having strong attitude, avoid censure others for mistakes, be able to get out of difficult situations.
Maintain balance between work and personal life: being able to prioritize personal and professional life in a harmonious way.
self-knowledge: have an accurate idea of \u200b\u200btheir weaknesses and strengths and be willing to invest in yourself.
have good relations: be nice and to show good humor.
act with flexibility: ability to take opposing attitudes - provide leadership and be lead - review and accept opinions of others. Mario
Borghino (1998). concerned: "decisions can not be taken without first being preceded by quiet reflection, awareness and taking the pulse required between one moment and another, and the great leaders possess this virtue for reflection ... leaders have a great ability to abstract them away from the noise of conflict, to synthesize the whole, seeing the needle in the haystack, warn not disorder caused by the hurricane but its origin ... know what underlying a problem, learn that behind this there are a number of constants to be solved, because to understand the "causes" must reflect, abstract, recognize and maintain the apparent calm in crisis ... and thanks to leader's ability to perform all this is that big plans can be developed, finding the best solutions and see what the naked eye can not see other ... "
Woodcock and Francis (1997) listed a number of powers and leadership skills to be developed in managers today. These are:
1. School self-management: learning to be oneself as a unique and valuable resource to sustain their contribution each year.
2. Strong personal values: consistency of values \u200b\u200b(in decision-making) with the current concept of successful management usually emphasize on efficiency, recognizing the potential of people and encouraging openness to innovation.
3. Personal goals clear: to identify work objectives and personal goals to reach properly to the alternatives and courses of action.
4. Continuous personal growth: confrontation of weaknesses and be in continuous improvement. This essentially means that the leader should act, on the one hand, taking into account their strengths and weaknesses and work on the latest and on the other, this should be done, taking risks and always focusing on success.
5. Problem-solving skills: must be able to solve problems quickly and effectively, which plays a key role leading the intellectual capacity, as our opinion.
6. Creativity and Innovation: be prepared to deal constructively with setbacks and failure to manage change effectively.
7. Added ability to influence: ability to persuade others without recourse to authority.
8. Supervisory capacity (or push in my opinion) is the ability to achieve results through the efforts of subordinates, effectively managing human and material resources.
9. Ability to instruct or perfect others: skills to help others, to quickly and efficiently learn and practice new techniques.
10. Ability to team building: ability to organize people in teams competentes.
11. Capacidad para hacerse cargo de su propia vida.
Concepto de Probabilidades en la Toma de desiciones
Las condiciones en las que se toman las decisiones pueden clasificarse en términos generales como certidumbre, riesgo e incertidumbre. Ya anteriormente hemos definido lo que es riesgo e incertidumbre, ahora bien, la Certidumbre, es la condición en que los individuos son plenamente informados sobre un problema, las soluciones alternativas son obvias, y son claros los posibles resultados de cada decisión. En condiciones de certidumbre, la gente puede al menos prever (si no es que controlar) los hechos y sus resultados.
La toma de una decisión, fundamentalmente, has to do with combining information on odds, with information about wishes and interests. To cite one example, how many want you out with that woman? How important is the output? How much is the prize? Addressing
like betting decisions is the basis of decision theory. Means we have to offset the value of a certain outcome to its probability. The probability is the percentage of times that a specific outcome would occur if an individual often take the same decision. The most common example of probability is the toss of a coin: given a sufficient number of launches, 50 percent of the time will face and 50 percent of the time remaining will cross.
The type, amount and reliability of the information influence the level of risk and the fact if the person making the decision you can make use of objective or subjective probability estimate of the result. Chance
objective:
The possibility of occurrence of a specific result based on concrete facts and numbers is called objective probability. Sometimes an individual can determine the likely outcome of a decision by examining previous records. For example, although companies insurance of life can not determine the year in which each policyholder will die, objective probabilities can be calculated based on the expectation that mortality rates prevalent in the past from recurring in the future.
Subjective probability:
The assessment based on personal views and opinions of the occurrence of a particular result is known as subjective probability. These opinions vary from one individual to another, depending on your intuition, previous experience in similar situations, knowledge and personal traits (such as preference for the assumption or avoidance of risk ).
CONCLUSION
In current world conditions, where instability and change are permanent conditions, where the beaten track are not effective for new circumstances, it is necessary to combine the qualities of the man of action, curiosity, the desire for adventure, courage, preparation, energy and faith in the wisdom of scientific knowledge, analytical ability, his foresight imagination and thoroughness. It should be noted that:
- Any decision necessarily implies a certain risk.
- rationality is limited by shortcomings the human intellect.
- The risk increases with increasing uncertainty and indecision.
- The risk aversion may be a lost opportunity. We must learn to live with uncertainty and risk, and that can not be avoided. The only possible with accurate assessment will be back to action, ie, in the future.
- is necessary to combine the qualities of the man of action with the wisdom of science and faith.
These same conditions in the world today, also influence the type of person who should be in front of a managerial position, determine what qualities this person should possess, and that is, to be on par with all market requirements there must be a self-demanding professional and your work group, whose capacity for analysis is quick and logical and solutions to meet any problems that may arise. A manager should facilitate large changes to give new purpose and values \u200b\u200bto the world of business. Have vision, take risks, accompanied by criticism, be optimistic, encouraging dissent, have high expectations towards others, have smell on the future, to see things long term, understand and respect the interests, and develop partnerships
strategic
Another very particular is the use of statistical tools for help and support of the decisions that taken in a company, thus reducing the risk or risk to a vision of a particular alternative, this in turn allows a historical scenarios that have happened at the time and make comparisons, so, to observe the evolution Company and / or progress of it.
0 comments:
Post a Comment